Here is a look at what Progressives might expect from the “re-configuring” Republicans~

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ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS FOR REPUBLICAN PARTY 2013 AND FORWARD

 

    1. Incremental umbrella strategy, with a far right, “Tea Party” wing       increasingly “Fissured” and localized mostly in the Deep        South. Here the party would field candidates and register       voters with more inclusiveness in mind, targeting “reachable’ Hispanics,       blacks, women, youth, non-voters. This seems the default sine qua non of       the post 2012 elections for the party mainstream. As long as the       far-right, mostly Southern redoubt of inflexible conservatives remains inflexible, the party will       have big problems uniting around issues and candidates.
    1. Remobilize the conservative base, less       fissure with far right, get       out the vote and hope that democrats will split between moderate and       progressive wings. Make a few strategic concessions on things like       immigration but largely “stand-pat-ism”. May not seem like most promising       strategy, but may in fact be the most probable one. A slight pragmatic       tilt welling up from the state and local levels, and a more “exciting”       candidate than Romney, may make this viable, especially if some/several       of Obama’s policies create backlash. On the other hand, it may be very       hard to find a candidate as clever and magnificently flexible as Romney       at the top of the ticket in the future. And who looks as presidential for       our look-ist culture. Note that while Reagan seemed quite conservative       for his time, the two Bushes, especially Bush 1, seemed less so.
  • The first two seem to be the likeliest short term Republican trajectories, but there is the chance that the Republicans will form a “tack just to the right of whatever democrat they are running against strategy. They showed signs of leaning toward this in the waning days of the 2012 presidential election campaign, when Romney—not the strongest of candidates Personally when pitted against Obama, pulled very close in many polls. The risk here is that such Clintonesque pragmatism will not play well with the Far Fight, which will have to either change quickly (not likely) or be placated for the Republicans to have Any real chance to win nationally.

      The Tea Partiers, paradoxically, or both a drag on the national ticket and an essential part of the base. Remove even half of the ultra-conservatives from Romney voters and he would have gone down like the Hindenburg. MOVE Romney 5 degrees to the right, and he would have done the same. In fact, it may be difficult for any candidate to see-saw as effectively between the center-right and far right as Romney or a “Romney type.” On the other hand we must never forget the power of a progressive “unconventional” candidate like Obama to unite Republicans. The popular vote spread in 2012 was smaller than one might have supposed, given the number of right-wing positions Romney acceded to. He was truly the I’m not Obama candidate and 4.7 out of 10 voters preferred “Not Obama.”

  • The last of the 2 big party scenarios is the least likely, especially with the powerful role the House of Reps. Seems to be playing in supervising the party, would simply be for the Republicans to adopt a proactive strategy of mixed-bag progressive and attractively packaged conservative/pragmatic policies and continue to do what they do so well: raise Big money, and play fast and loose with the truth, which the Democrats can do, but seem to have considerably more trouble doing, than their opponents.

One thought on “Here is a look at what Progressives might expect from the “re-configuring” Republicans~

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